Advisory
A fleet decision tested before the commitment
USD 5.6B
Fleet investment case validated
Challenge
Project Sunrise, non-stop flights from Australia’s east coast to London and New York, required a fleet investment of about USD 5.6 billion on routes no airline had flown. The business case rested on assumptions about revenue premiums, load factors, fuel, exchange rates and demand over a horizon of more than twenty years. Before the commitment, the airline wanted the case tested by someone who had not written it.
Approach
I led the independent evaluation of the investment case. We back-tested the revenue assumptions at route level against the airline’s own history on comparable long-haul routes, examined the operational assumptions on aircraft utilisation and crewing, and ran sensitivity analysis across fuel price, exchange rate and demand scenarios over the full horizon, identifying which assumptions the case was most exposed to and by how much.
Outcome
A validated set of commercial, operational and financial assumptions, with the sensitivities the board needed before approving the programme. The airline proceeded with the fleet commitment.
Source
Engagement record. Public context: Qantas announcements on Project Sunrise.
What decision are you weighing?
For advisory, training and speaking enquiries, or a conversation about a decision you are weighing.